Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
